The electability of Ridwan Kamil-Suswono (RIDO) has slipped in various surveys, with Pramono Anung-Rano Karno overtaking them eight days before the Jakarta gubernatorial election on November 27, 2024.
Several survey results indicate a decline in RK’s electability. One such survey, conducted by SMRC, recorded Pramono-Rano at 46%, while RIDO stood at 39.1%.
A Litbang Kompas survey from October 20-25, 2024, also noted Pramono-Rano leading with 38.3%, followed by RIDO at 34.6%.
RK has shifted his approach, exploring alternative strategies. Besides actively campaigning and engaging with the public, he has sought the support of influential figures, including the current President of Indonesia, Prabowo Subianto, and the 7th President, Joko Widodo. RK has met with Jokowi twice, once in Solo and again in Jakarta.
RK has also repeatedly claimed public support from both political figures. Jokowi, on Monday (11/18) in Jakarta, openly endorsed RK, citing his track record as a former mayor and governor.
What Are RK’s Final Moves as Election Day Nears?
Dedi Kurnia Syah, Executive Director of Indonesia Political Opinion (IPO), believes RK will leverage the influence of Prabowo and Jokowi to gain voters’ trust and reinforce his alignment with the ruling powers.
Dedi predicts that RK will frequently emphasize the narrative of receiving support from Prabowo and Jokowi, as well as highlight the importance of synergy with the central government.
“The tendency will lean towards that approach, as his ideas and plans for Jakarta have already been presented and have not significantly outpaced Pramono,” Dedi said on Tuesday (11/19).
Dedi added that the impact would be stronger if both Prabowo and Jokowi actively campaigned for RK.
Although no longer president, Jokowi still wields political machinery, much of which now exists as volunteer networks.
“Organizations like Projo and other volunteer groups still have influence,” Dedi said.
Competition with Anies and Ahok Supporters
Dedi also noted that Jokowi’s loyalists could compete with the supporters of Anies Baswedan and Ahok, who currently favor Pramono-Rano Karno.
However, he highlighted that the characteristics of Anies and Ahok supporters differ from Jokowi’s base.
“Anies and Ahok have organic supporters who are directly loyal to the figures themselves,” he said.
“These supporters are not part of organized groups, making them prone to shifting if rival candidates seem more appealing,” he added.
RIDO’s Path to Victory
Despite challenges, Dedi remains optimistic about RK’s chances of winning the 2024 Jakarta gubernatorial election.
“Prabowo’s backing is politically significant, as his influence extends not only to direct voters but also bureaucratic networks,” he said.
Signs of Panic?
Dedi observed that the involvement of figures like Jokowi and Prabowo in endorsing RIDO could signal underlying panic within the RK-Suswono camp.
“The involvement of figures as prominent as Jokowi and Prabowo may appear excessive, possibly reflecting strong pressure from rivals and a looming sense of potential defeat,” Dedi remarked.
The Role of Undecided Voters
Separately, Andalas University political observer Asrinaldi shared his perspective, stating that RIDO would likely amplify narratives of receiving support from both Prabowo and Jokowi.
Such narratives, he explained, could potentially sway undecided voters and boost RIDO’s numbers in the final week of campaigning.
“If executed effectively, this could significantly influence RK’s vote tally in the last week,” Asrinaldi said.
He added that RIDO would also target younger voters from the millennial and Gen Z demographics with tailored approaches.
Jokowi’s Endorsement: A Boost but Not Game-Changing
Asrinaldi acknowledged that Jokowi’s endorsement would positively impact RK’s campaign, though its significance might be less pronounced compared to Jokowi’s tenure as president.
“Jokowi’s volunteers are ready to help, though the effect won’t be as significant as it would have been during his presidency,” he said.
