Jakarta – For the people of Turkey, the renewed conflict in Syria is no surprise. For more than two months, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his right-wing ally Devlet Bahceli have almost exclusively discussed power shifts in the Middle East and their negative consequences for Ankara.
This refers to the potential changes that could benefit Kurdish groups in Syria. Since the civil war began in Syria, Kurdish groups have controlled the northeastern region of Rojava and established their own government. This has long been a thorn in Turkey’s side.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is currently in a relatively weak position, as his main supporters from abroad, Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah in Lebanon, are under pressure. Russia now has to focus on Ukraine to prevent Ukrainian forces from seizing more Russian territory in Kursk. Hezbollah and Iran are also weakening due to Israeli attacks.
Meanwhile, the position of the United States under President Donald Trump, starting next year, remains uncertain. Whether Trump will withdraw U.S. forces from Iraq and Syria, as per his “America First” slogan, is still unclear.
The Syrian rebels are aware of this opportunity, and on November 27, they launched a massive attack. Within a few days, they captured Syria’s second-largest city, Aleppo, forcing Assad’s forces to retreat “almost without resistance.” They are now advancing to capture other neighboring cities. They are led by the Islamist militia Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which was once a regional branch of the terrorist group Al-Qaeda.
Middle East expert Michael Lders told Deutschlandfunk radio that Turkey knew about the attack plans and even supported them militarily. “The rebels clearly needed the right weapons. Given the geographical location, you can only get that armament from Turkey,” he said.
Ankara’s Target: Kurdish Groups
Immediately after the civil war broke out in Syria, Turkey sided with the rebels and severed diplomatic relations with Damascus. However, recently, Erdogan has tried to restore communication channels. But Assad rejected these efforts and demanded that Turkey first withdraw its troops from northern Syria before normalizing relations.
However, Turkey has rejected this demand. The areas along the Syrian-Turkish border, controlled by the Turkish military together with the Syrian National Army (SNA) militia, function as a “safe zone,” according to Turkey.
Turkey’s primary goal is to dominate or overthrow the Kurdish autonomous government in northeastern Rojava. This area is controlled by the Democratic Union Party (PYD), which Turkey views as a branch of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), categorized as a terrorist organization by Turkey. In addition to supporting the SNA, Turkey also supports the jihadist militia HTS, the main group behind the attack on Aleppo, which now controls the region.
However, Ankara continues to deny involvement in the recent developments in Syria. “Turkey will not support actions that trigger a new wave of refugees,” said Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan.
Turkey has indeed taken in many Syrian refugees, hosting around 3.5 million refugees since the civil war broke out. Erdogan wants to send as many refugees as possible back to Syria, which is why a secure buffer zone is needed in northern Syria. Recently, Erdogan reiterated his plan to control a 30 to 40-kilometer wide area in northern Syria.
How Much Influence Does Turkey Have Over the SNA?
The SNA itself comprises several jihadist groups. Will Erdogan also collaborate with jihadists to achieve his goals? According to security expert Burak Yildirim in Istanbul, Turkey does control the SNA. “Their actions largely follow Turkey’s plan,” he said.
However, that does not mean everything will be easy for Ankara. “Both HTS and the SNA want to overthrow Assad,” said Yildirim. “But they can divide the conquered territory between themselves.” The SNA has currently captured the Tal Rifat area and plans to attack other Kurdish cities.
“Even though the Turkish government is supporting the current attack militarily, they are trying to avoid direct confrontation with Russia, Iran, and the Assad regime,” said Middle East expert Erhan Kelesoglu. Erdogan will wait and observe how far the forces close to Ankara can push back the Kurdish militias and take over their territories.
Since 2016, Turkish forces have repeatedly bombed areas controlled by the Kurds as part of large-scale military operations. Human rights organizations like Human Rights Watch (HRW) have accused Ankara of committing war crimes. In a report published last March, HRW blamed Ankara for kidnappings, looting, torture, and sexual violence. Turkey is responsible for serious attacks and possible war crimes committed by its own forces and the local armed groups it supports in the areas it controls in northern Syria, according to HRW.
Adapted from a DW German-language article
