Jakarta – Donald Trump was officially inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States (US) on Monday (January 20), succeeding Joe Biden after defeating Kamala Harris in the general election. Trump had previously served as President before being defeated by Biden. Trump’s leadership legitimacy is likely to be stronger given that the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate are controlled by the Republican Party, the party supporting Trump’s candidacy.
Although he was just inaugurated, Trump has already issued several executive orders, including the U.S. withdrawing from the World Health Organization (WHO), deportation of illegal migrants, tightening the southern border with Mexico, revoking birthright citizenship (jus soli), and withdrawing from the Paris Agreement.
Trump’s actions indicate an anti-multilateralist and protectionist approach. Multilateralism refers to cooperation between three or more countries (Fukushima, 1999). Meanwhile, protectionism is a policy to protect a country’s economy by restricting foreign influences (Abboushi, 2010).
Trump’s second term appears to continue the leadership style from his first term. During his first term, he unexpectedly left the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a long-standing partnership pursued by Barack Obama. Given Trump’s “extreme” political maneuvers in his second term, what are the implications for Southeast Asia?
Three Points
It cannot be denied that U.S. policies will affect political, social, and economic dynamics worldwide, including in Southeast Asia. Three key points need attention. First, international politics has shifted from a multilateralism paradigm to regionalism or inter-country cooperation based on geographical proximity or certain issues like the economy.
Sujiro Seam, on Wednesday (February 22), stated that the European Union (EU) is ready to join the 2025 EU-ASEAN Summit. Not only that, but the EU is committed to intensifying the free trade agreement (FTA) between the EU and Southeast Asian countries. Seam’s statement signals the EU’s move toward regional organization cooperation.
The EU seems to be wary of Trump’s announcement to raise export tariffs to the EU by 10%. Indonesia itself seems to be maneuvering to adapt to this shift by joining BRICS, an organization of countries opposing U.S. economic dominance, as a full member. Meanwhile, Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia are joining as BRICS partner countries.
Second, global trade uncertainty tends to increase. Not only with the EU, but Trump also plans to raise trade protections against China. This will affect countries that partner with both China and the EU, especially those providing raw or semi-processed materials to both. Southeast Asian countries are among these partners.
According to China Customs, in July 2024, one of the highest trade values came from trade between ASEAN countries and China, amounting to $80 million. Meanwhile, according to BPS, in October 2024, Indonesia was China and the U.S.’s main non-oil and gas export partner. This means that Southeast Asia, including Indonesia, needs to be cautious of global trade uncertainty caused by Trump’s trade wars. Furthermore, Indonesia’s membership in BRICS could prompt Trump to impose trade sanctions on Indonesia.
Third, the absence of the U.S. in Southeast Asia could hinder the implementation of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (LCS). The U.S. could have played a balancing role against China’s strong influence in the LCS. Moreover, Indonesia’s participation in BRICS could affect Indonesia’s credibility as a mediator and initiator of the Code of Conduct in the LCS.
Need for a Balance
To anticipate the negative impacts, I believe that Indonesia needs a balance to replace the U.S., such as Australia and the EU. The fluctuating China-Australia relations could be leveraged by ASEAN to reduce China’s influence in Southeast Asia by intensifying political and economic cooperation between ASEAN and Australia. Additionally, Indonesia should seize the opportunity of the U.S.’s absence in global politics to deepen diplomacy with Oceania countries to strengthen its political position in Papua.
